Tqqq大幅回調

投資最難既係如何違反人性，於下跌時不失信心並按紀律執行順境時定下的策略。

維持月供tqqq及tmf，相信三至五年後會有所收成。
 

風險報酬比

 2022年極大機會成幅向右移。回顧返自己倉位，除咗msft之後，另外6隻個股波幅都極大，。為減輕心理壓力，今年首要目標都係慢慢增持etf。

Sofi 獲批銀行牌照

等咗咁耐，終於批了

 

股債雙跌

傳統意義上，股票及債券有反向走勢，所以有部份投資者會購入國債以對沖手上的股票。近年亦興起Hedgefundie’s Excellent Adventure 55/45的組合，簡單而言就是同時持有upro（現時更多人選擇tqqq)及tmf，利用tmf作upro的對沖，即使股市大跌，tmf的升幅也可減低倉位的受壓。但最近tmf由30元跌至25元左右，tqqq也由170元跌至135元左右，出現股市國債雙雙大跌的情況。呢個情況時有發生，我們仍然可以依這理論投資，但要預計理論也會有失效的時候，最重要的是有坐貨的能力。

最近好多新手炒股炒到輸身家 https://lih.kg/2846967 - 分享自 LIHKG 討論區

轉貼 最近好多新手炒股炒到輸身家

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- 分享自 LIHKG 討論區

 1. 唔好買末日期權

本金唔多嘅新手可能覺得正股好貴，就走去玩末日期權。

但係末日期權嘅勝率可能仲衰過賭波。貪入場費低而揀一個勝率極低嘅炒法係最蠢嘅決定。

唔好將自己擺喺一晚可以輸哂身家嘅處境。

2. 長期趨勢比短期變化更容易預測

好多新手會直覺地以為短期變化應該比長期趨勢更容易預測。

但唔一定嘅，例如我好肯定5年後Microsoft嘅股價會高過今日，但我完全唔知道下一個交易日會係升定跌。

一間公司好勁都唔代表佢會日日升。Tesla、Nvidia係好勁，但係勁嘅公司都唔代表會日日升。如果你投資一間公司係因為睇好佢嘅長期趨勢，就唔好不斷去捕捉佢短期嘅升升跌跌。

3. 買股票唔好淨係貪高回報，要諗吓承唔承受到跌幅

有啲人見某隻股票走勢好勁就all in高追，忽略咗佢嘅波幅可能大到你承受唔到。

投資並非只係睇預期回報。應該考慮埋依隻股票係咪可以放心持有。

好似TQQQ咁，有睇過去走勢就會見到TQQQ久唔久都會由高位跌2-3成，淨係2021年都已經試過幾次，但原來好多人買之前真係完全唔知或者無諗過。

4. 做咗功課唔代表可以提高表現

好多阿叔成日睇馬經，但係睇咗幾十年都賭馬都係贏唔到錢。

有啲巴打睇咗幾條YouTube片、睇吓新聞、學吓技術分析、上吓股票課程就以為自己買嗰隻股票會升。

你付出咗精力唔代表一定有回報嘅。你諗吓點解啲阿叔睇咗幾十年馬經都無進步過。

同埋唔好見到有人開班、開YouTube、開Patreon就假設對方講嘢一定啱。

5. 唔好淨係聽唱好嘅消息，要聽埋反對嘅聲音，仲要睇埋佢地點樣反駁對方

唔同嘅投資工具、策略都會有人支持有人反對。如果你淨係聽唱好嘅消息，就會忽略咗負面因素。不過你聽哂兩邊之後多數都判斷唔到邊個啱，淨係覺得兩邊都有道理。

你要睇埋佢地點樣反駁對方，咁你會諗得更加清晰。同埋如果唱好嗰面唔敢接受反對聲音嘅挑戰，就多數都係伏。

6. 唔好訓身買不知名嘅公司

你賭波都唔會拎成副身家去賭一場俄超掛？

7. 輸咗嗰陣唔好心急追返

有啲巴打輸咗會好心急想追返，然後作出草率嘅投資決定，甚至採取更高風險嘅炒法。

賭仔性格通常只會令你輸更多。如果你輸好多，不如唔好睇股市住，等你冷靜返先再部署，唔好俾一時嘅情緒影響你嘅決定。

最差的開局

2022年的首周迎來近年最差的開始，短短7個交易日已經擴大到ytd-14%。

手上發夢股佔比多，而且滿倉情況，相信仍會受壓一段時間。

2021 年回報 虧損1%

2021年最後一個交易日完結，整年回報為-1.01%。

9月之前回報一直維持15至20%，但10月開始倉內fintech 成份股大跌，最後蒸發所有利潤。可參考 整年回顧 

月供指數 splg sp500

 開始月供指數。遲啲再講返點解唔揀spy voo ivv反而揀splg。

Nvda 兩星期賺了一個聖誕駛費

Short put了Nvda 287.5，結果nvda跌至270左右，自己則以287.5的合約價接貨，這個價位本來就是自己願意購入的價位，所以心理上並不覺得蝕。之後以同等價位287.5 short call，估唔到一星期內極速反彈上295，於是要以合約價賣出。兩星期，賺了700美金的權期金，也不錯，變相降低了nvda長倉的成本價。

下跌便加倉，升就繼續由長倉收成。 

2021回顧 年尾大虧損

襯這幾天休息回顧一下今年的投資：

接觸期權

一開始時只做short put 及short call，下半年開始買入leap call，當中有賺有蝕。工具本身並無對錯，最重要的還是選股本身，選到一隻好股票，利用期權這工具可以倍大化收益，相反選錯股的話虧損可以很驚人。切記，切勿試圖用期權去賭一啲自己本身不打算持有的股票，結果只會是贏粒糖輸間廠。

一般散戶心態：

衍生工具等於賭錢，好易輸身家

買正股我唔放就唔輸，同佢鬥長命，總有一日升返

個股選擇

持倉由最高峰時的四十多隻減至七隻，集中化能令自己更易管理。然而，過度集中的壞處是很容易因為一兩隻個股洗倉而出現極大虧損。以11及12月為例，由於佔倉比超過5成的fintech牌塊大跌，短短兩個月間便虧掉近二十萬，sq upst sofi pypl均下跌超過4成。未來一年，應該不會再增添其他個股，即使出現很吸引的個股，也盡量控制在10檔以內，有餘錢便投入etf。

Etf指數基金

會透過現持個股配合Covered call產生的期權金慢慢購入納指或標普，與其花心神去跑贏大市，不如跟隨大市。早幾日看到以下評論「過往十年，美股大牛市，港股則一沉不起，但美股長期處於歷史高位，反觀港股已跌至低位，現時購入港股的風險很低。雖然長遠還是看好美股，但現時確實較有信心捕捉到港股的低位反彈。」這翻說話道出很多炒股多年仍是倒錢落海的原因，在一個下降的趨勢中捕捉反彈，或許可以數次成功買到平貨，但長期來看只要出場時機不好，總會輸返曬，因為長期總是向下，恒指十多年來仍無法升穿高位，真係值得搏反彈？當然港股仍有部份優質公司，如中電，但整個市場已被中央搞到一舊屎。與其用便宜的價錢買不值錢的東西，不如用一個合理的價錢買好東西。平野，永遠背後都有著佢唔值錢的原因。

恒指10年

標普十年

資產配置

比起注碼過度集中，資產配置失衡才是最大問題。即使買入100檔股票，也不算是有好好的資產配置，若遇上大回調，也是難以獨善其身，畢竟大部分個股跟大市有正向關係。應該持有部份負數關係的資產，例如長債，在大跌市時透過該負數關係資產的增幅減輕壓力（當然歷史上股債雙殺也是常有發生，但整體而言股票與長債應該是此消彼長的）。

六位數去七位數無想像中咁難，但七位數去八位數就相當遙不可及。十年財自之路已過了一年半，希望可以成功，投資股票市場，心態比技術更重要。

ProShares Announces ETF Share Splits

簡單來講長升既拆，長跌既合。

ProShares, a premier provider of ETFs, announced today forward and reverse share splits on seventeen of its ETFs. The splits will not change the total value of a shareholder's investment and will be effective on two separate dates.

Forward Splits

Seven ETFs will forward split shares at the following split ratios:

Ticker	ProShares ETF	Split Ratio
CSM	ProShares Large Cap Core Plus	2:1
ROM	ProShares Ultra Technology	2:1
SSO	ProShares Ultra S&P500	2:1
TQQQ	ProShares UltraPro QQQ	2:1
UCC	ProShares Ultra Consumer Services	2:1
UPRO	ProShares UltraPro S&P500	2:1
UGE	ProShares Ultra Consumer Goods	4:1

All forward splits will apply to shareholders of record as of market close on January 11, 2022, payable after market close on January 12, 2022. All forward splits will be effective prior to market open on January 13, 2022, when the funds will begin trading at their post-split prices. The ticker symbols and CUSIP numbers for the funds will not change.

The forward splits will decrease the price per share of each fund with a proportionate increase in the number of shares outstanding. For example, for a two-for-one split, every pre-split share will result in the receipt of two post-split shares, which will be priced at one-half the net asset value ("NAV") of a pre-split share.

Illustration of a Forward Split

The following table shows the effect of a hypothetical two-for-one forward split:

Period	# of Shares Owned	Hypothetical NAV	Value of Shares
Pre-Split	100	$120.00	$12,000.00
Post-Split	200	$60.00	$12,000.00

Reverse Splits – Phase 1

ProShares will implement reverse splits for ten ETFs in two phases, on two separate dates. Nine ETFs will reverse split shares at the following split ratios:

Ticker	ProShares ETF	Split Ratio	Old CUSIP	New CUSIP
REK	ProShares Short Real Estate	1:2	74347X641	74347G366
REW	ProShares UltraShort Technology	1:2	74347G853	74347G424
SKF	ProShares UltraShort Financials	1:2	74347G713	74347G382
DUG	ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas	1:5	74348A525	74347G358
DXD	ProShares UltraShort Dow30	1:5	74347B276	74347G374
SBM	ProShares Short Basic Materials	1:5	74347X559	74347G341
SDS	ProShares UltraShort S&P500	1:5	74347B383	74347G416
SQQQ	ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ	1:5	74347G861	74347G432
SRTY	ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000	1:5	74347G747	74347G390

All reverse splits for Phase 1 will be effective prior to market open on January 13, 2022, when the funds will begin trading at their post-split prices. The ticker symbols for the funds will not change. All funds undergoing a reverse split will be issued new CUSIP numbers, listed above.

Reverse Splits – Phase 2

One ETF will reverse split shares at the following split ratio:

Ticker	ProShares ETF	Split Ratio	Old CUSIP	New CUSIP
KOLD	ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas	1:5	74347W387	74347Y821

All reverse splits for Phase 2 will be effective prior to market open on January 14, 2022, when the fund will begin trading at its post-split price. The ticker symbol for the fund will not change. The fund undergoing a reverse split will be issued a new CUSIP number, listed above.

The reverse split will increase the price per share of each fund with a proportionate decrease in the number of shares outstanding. For example, for a one-for-five reverse split, every five pre-split shares will result in the receipt of one post-split share, which will be priced five times higher than the NAV of a pre-split share.

Illustration of a Reverse Split

The following table shows the effect of a hypothetical one-for-five reverse split:

Period	# of Shares Owned	Hypothetical NAV	Value of Shares
Pre-Split	1,000	$10.00	$10,000.00
Post-Split	200	$50.00	$10,000.00

Fractional Shares from Reverse Splits

For shareholders who hold quantities of shares that are not an exact multiple of the reverse split ratio (for example, not a multiple of five for a one-for-five reverse split), the reverse split will result in the creation of a fractional share. Post-reverse split fractional shares will be redeemed for cash and sent to your broker of record. This redemption may cause some shareholders to realize gains or losses, which could be a taxable event for those shareholders.

About ProShares

ProShares has been at the forefront of the ETF revolution since 2006. ProShares now offers one of the largest lineups of ETFs, and along with its affiliates, manages approximately $75 billion in assets. The company is the leader in strategies such as dividend growth, interest rate hedged bond, thematics and geared (leveraged and inverse) ETF investing. ProShares continues to innovate with products that provide strategic and tactical opportunities for investors to manage risk and enhance returns.